New index shows impact of container disruptions

In recent years, disruptions for container shipping reached an unprecedented level. During the Covid-19 disruptions, virtually all companies in the sector were able to benefit from massive revenues, followed by a downturn and potential overcapacity in the container market. At the moment, however, demand has increased due to the re-routing of ships from the Red Sea around Africa.

By and large, unforeseen disruptions had a significant impact on freight rates. Quantifying these impacts is important, both for container lines and their clients. World Bank experts have now crunched the data and introduced the Global Supply Chain Stress Index (GSCSI).

The index was developed by Jean-François Arvis, Cordula Rastogi, Jean-Paul Rodrigue, and Daria Ulybina. It shows that an increase of one million TEU under stress results in an increase of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) – a leading spot indicator – by $2,300 per TEU.

The GSCSI is based on AIS tracking data. It calculates the equivalent stalled ship capacity measured in TEU. The results are supposed to help with contingency planning and targeted interventions, ultimately improving the resilience of maritime supply chains.

More details and the full report can be found on the World Bank website.